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It’s often said that elections are decided by discussions over the Christmas barbeque before election year.  Erratic Christmas weather will provoke discussion about climate warming.  It’s fascinating that New Zealand’s record of emissions is higher than many who have not signed the Kyoto Agreement.  The record is the opposite of the rhetoric.

Aspirational goals are fine, it’s splendid to claim we will be the first carbon neutral country in the world.  Many countries and leaders are saying this.  Modesty is called for because even if we closed New Zealand down, that would only represent a few days of China’s growth.  China’s increase in energy usage over the past 5 years represents the total energy consumption of Japan.  The government will spend millions of dollars telling us how important this is, and why, therefore, they should be re-elected.  The Gore movie will be shown in schools.   The UK the courts have ruled that its flaws and inaccuracies should be pointed out if it’s to be an educational tool.  No such legal action in NZ yet.  Next year everybody will probably get a cash ‘dividend’ reminding us that the economy is pumping along, albeit well behind other countries, but historically good, especially employment figures.

This will get over the ‘tax’ issue and ensures beneficiaries and pensioners who don’t pay tax will get a boost.  Tax cuts will be legislated for ….. in the future.  Like Robert Muldoon in 1972, Michael Cullen will say National’s promises don’t add up, because he’s spent the lot.  Productivity won’t figure as an issue next year despite the fact that all economic progress and social spending is based on this boring truth.  Our productivity is flat-lining and well behind our competitors.

The Government does look tired, rattled, and inclined to get nasty and blame others when cornered.  Advisors should be blamed for decisions, they are advisors, you can say no.  It’s hard to feel sorry for Trevor Mallard, who has been a ‘hatchet man’ over the years.  It was he who tipped the media off so he was on camera when he interjected in Parliament on Don Brash and his marital problems.  A new political technique, unique in the Parliamentary world, has emerged.  Instead of fronting up when in trouble, Ministers are given ‘stress’ leave, whether they want it or not.

The public has woken up to the serious issue of the Government legislating to stop dissent, something I wrote about many months ago and was rubbished for.  The electoral finance bill is wrong in substance, despite suggestions to the contrary, it has no parallel anywhere in the free world.  Curiously, disclosure of who gives what is still a secret, and unlike most democracies, we have no transparent funding of political parties.  It will do the opposite of what’s intended.  People are queuing up to test the law.  What if I start a giveaway newspaper and plan to lose a million dollars by election time?  What if a retired lawyer in a hospice fronts up a public campaign?  This issue alone will excite all sorts of new election year involvement.  If spending on political matters in election year can result in a prison sentence, why not for the whole 3 years?  Books could be banned!

Sure, the obnoxious Brethren should be exposed, but that’s about transparency disclosure.  Civil rights are about defending those whose ideas you oppose, not those who agree with you.  You will know there’s a change on when Winston Peters suggests he will do a deal with whoever agrees with his policies and when he picks a fight with the Maori Party, saying he won’t serve in a Cabinet with them.  National has its own problems, there are still unattractive faces from the 1990’s urging radical changes to industrial relations.  National is still fighting the class war and they just don’t get it.  The employment contract acts essentially privatised conditions, the social assets that workers had negotiated over many years.  Work choices was the biggest issue other than education in Labour’s publicity campaign in Australia.  Labour will correctly pounce and wedge this issue against National and motivate its base.  National has never, in living memory, cut personal or company tax, that will take some explaining.

National’s John Key has yet to prove he’s got the ticker, the heart, to fight issues of substance through.  The suspicion is that he will, in the great Kiwi tradition, choke when the blowtorch goes on him.  He’s getting just too much advice. Alas, MMP and the need to do a deal with the minor parties makes cowards of politicians.  The National Party was at its best when it spoke up for values and raising standards.  The violence, vulgarity, and crudity of popular culture is an issue just waiting to be taken up.  

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