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The Middle East conjures up dark pictures in Westerners’ minds, the agonies of Palestine and Iraq.  That’s like judging all of Africa because of Dufar, or all of Asia because of North Korea.  There’s more to the region and the Muslim world than that.  I spend much time in the region because of my memberships of some commercial boards, and for some reason I am invited to universities and seminars.  I also have a debt of honour to the Qatari Government for their support when I was Director-General of the World Trade Organisation and we launched the Doha Development Trade round.

The nations of the Gulf Co-Operation Council (GCC), Bahrain, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, and the United Arab Emirates (UAE) are committed to creating a common economic unit.  Imperfect progress is being made. Most currencies are linked to the US dollar, now there’s talk of a common currency based on a basket of currencies which will have profound implications for the status and security of the US dollar.  At one meeting, we talked of the implications of the UAE creating a new currency.  In substance, it would come in behind the US dollar, the Euro and the Japanese yen, a little ahead of the Chinese yuan.  Not a small idea.   The UAE is a federal state of small emirates, the most well-known of which is Dubai, which now enjoys more tourists than Egypt.  It’s airport gets 30 million visitors, its airline, alongside Qatar’s, is the fastest-growing in the world.  Only 40% of Dubai’s income is now resource-based.  The UAE’s growth is staggering.  Sixty percent of the world’s cranes are at work there.  New cities - an internet city, a cinema industry ($500 million earmarked), an education city, the first-ever green, carbon-neutral city is planned.  The world’s largest building will soon be finished.  Twice as many women are at local universities than men.  Women Ministers serve in most Emirates.  Women account for 45% of vehicle purchases, and outspend men in consumer electronics.

Together, the GCC would be the 7^th largest economy in the developing world, twice the size of Turkey, South Africa, or the Argentine.  Her global savings higher than China’s, and her current account surplus on a par with China.  The Abu Dhabi Investment Authority is second only to the Bank of Japan in terms of assets.  UAE investments range around the world to Daimler, Deutsbank, Citibank, Sainsbury, Ferrari, Aston Martin, growing and changing.  The IMF suggests infrastructure investment will reach $800 billion by 2010.  NZ is negotiating a free trade deal with the UAE, Australia has already signed up.  Pity that both the NZ Foreign and Trade Ministers attacked a Dubai Ports bid for Auckland Airport, not saying at the time, all investment, not just Arab investment, was targeted.  On the respected index of economic freedom, the GCC is well ahead of Russia, China, and India.  Half the GCC states score ahead of Italy.  The small states are laboratories of progress and hope, where success is causing a global splash, a global ripple, in which we all have a stake in.  There is a commitment to commercial law, which is why most of the world’s banks and multi-nationals are there.  All are members of the World Trade Organisation and subject to its agreed rules and obligations. 

They speak openly of how they can evolve into constitutional monarchies, elections are being cautiously held, in some places women have outnumbered men in voter turnout.  Some of these countries have migrant workers who can outnumber the locals by five to one.  Labour rights are, alas, very weak, but growing.  Remittances from these workers to The Philippines, Pakistan, and India are worth more to them than all the development aid from Western capitals.

A new ‘Silk Road’ is being created.  Within 4 hours’ flight lie 4 billion consumers.  They were trading with India and China before Christ was born, several thousand years before the first human foot left a mark on a New Zealand beach.  Sure, they have 40% of the world’s known oil reserves, 23% of the world’s natural gas reserves, and 22% of the present oil supply.  But they are investing beyond energy, everywhere and at home, big time.  Lucky, plucky Qatar is always in the news for its global events calendar, and successfully hosted the second-largest sporting event, the Asian Games.  Now they are looking at an Olympic bid.  Qatar’s global TV reach through Al Jezzera is now in English, and the BBC will soon launch a service in Arabic.  Al Jezzera is very independent and annoys Western powers, but it infuriates its neighbours even more.  On my last visit, staying in a 400-room hotel which cost $1.5 billion to construct, I noticed that the room service book was now in Russian, the Chinese are everywhere.  Now it gets interesting.  It’s still a dangerous neighbourhood.

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