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Dr Muriel Newman

A Covid Win

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According to one election night commentator, Saturday’s landslide result was a remarkable victory for a party that “couldn’t make anything fly, not even a kite”.

Favoured by the media and seen by many voters as the leader who had literally saved them from a coronavirus death, Jacinda Ardern defied the odds to win an historic MMP majority for Labour.

With 49.1 percent of the party vote delivering 64 MPs, it was the highest Labour win in fifty years and their third highest ever. National on the other hand gained just 26.8 percent of the party vote and 35 MPs, to produce the second worst election defeat in their 84-year history.

What is even more remarkable is that Labour won the party vote in every electorate seat except four, turning virtually the whole country into a sea of red.

ACT gained 8 percent and 10 MPs for their best ever result, and the Greens won 7.6 percent, including the Auckland Central electorate seat, to also have 10 MPs.

In a surprise result, the Maori Party secured the Maori seat of Waiariki, returning them to Parliament after their election defeat in 2017.

With only 2.7 percent of the party vote, last election’s ‘kingmaker’ party, New Zealand First, failed to reach the 5 percent MMP party vote threshold for Parliament – along with other minor parties including the New Conservatives on 1.5 percent, TOP 1.4 percent, and Advance NZ 0.9 percent.

Some 2,877,117 votes were cast in the election to produce the best turnout in 20 years at 82.5 percent, up from 79.8 in 2017. Around 480,000 or 17 percent were special votes, including 66,000 from overseas. Their impact on election night outcomes will not be known until the final results are announced on November 6.

Provisional results for the euthanasia and cannabis referenda are expected on October 30, followed by the final results on November 6.

A number of commentators have claimed that the election victory gives Labour a strong mandate to pursue a left-wing ‘transformative’ agenda, but the results show otherwise.

This week’s NZCPR Guest, political commentator Frank Newman, outlines exactly where Labour’s extra votes came from:

“On the election night result, National was down 360,000 to 26.8%. New Zealand First shed 100,000 votes to 2.7% and out of Parliament. Labour was the main beneficiary. Of those 460,000 votes it gained 58%.  8% went to the Greens, 26% to ACT and just under 8% to Advance NZ and the New Conservative Party.”

That means of the 1,169,397 party votes cast for Labour, some 266,800 – around 23 percent – came from centre-right voters.

Newstalk ZB’s Kate Hawkesby explains what was going on: “I can tell you that if I had a dollar for every National voter who told me they were voting Labour this time round to keep the Greens out, then I’d have made a lot of money out of this election. Nats voters disillusioned with the omnishambles that is National right now, and freaked out by talk of a wealth tax, held their breath and ticked red on the day. Covid-fearing Kiwis ticked red, and the red ticked red, and voila – a landslide.”

Labour ran a masterly campaign – by keeping the country’s focus on the virus, and constantly repeating the mantra that it was our team of 5 million that defeated it, they communicated a powerful party line: by sticking together we won the Covid battle and by staying with Labour we will win the battle to rebuild our nation.

With focus group polling underway since January, Labour strategists advised that to win the election the party needed to shift into the political centre ground and temper their socialist ambitions.

As a result, Labour based their policies on their 2017 agenda to reassure National voters, and designed their new commitments to attract them – such as their plan to pay back the debt through economic growth rather than wealth taxes: “The key to our plan is sustainable economic growth. More people in work, more businesses thriving, and more New Zealanders out shopping means more money coming into the Government.”

They used conservative slogans such as a ‘strong and stable’ government and a ‘steady pair of hands’ to win over ‘soft’ National supporters – as Newsroom reported: “Framing a party as a steady pair of hands is usually a message heard from the right, a strategy employed by the John Key-Bill English government.” 

The Spinoff’s Danyl Mclauchlan outlined more details:

“Ardern’s favourite line over the course of the campaign has been that ‘National is no longer the party of Bill English and John Key’. This is what political strategists call a permission structure. For many voters politics isn’t about ideology or policy: it’s an expression of their identity. They vote Labour or National because it’s part of how they see themselves. When asked in focus groups they’ll say things like ‘I vote Labour because my dad was a union delegate, or ‘I vote National because everyone around here does’.

“You can’t win people like that over with a policy launch or an aspirational slogan. But when a party disintegrates the way National has, its adversaries can present a suite of arguments giving its traditional supporters permission to vote against their own identity group. Boris Johnson used this technique to great effect in the UK’s 2019 election when he told working class Labour voters that he needed to ‘borrow’ their vote to get Brexit done. ‘It’s OK to vote for me this time’ is Ardern’s message. ‘You’ll get the same government you did when Key and English ran things, but my party isn’t tearing itself to pieces in the middle of the election campaign against a background of a deadly pandemic and global economic crisis’.”

On election night, Jacinda Ardern acknowledged that her support had come from across the political spectrum, “To those amongst you who may not have supported Labour before… I say thank you. We will not take your support for granted. And I can promise you, we will be a party that governs for every New Zealander.”

She set out her priorities: “This is our opportunity to build an economy that works for everyone, to keep creating decent jobs, to up-skill and train our people, to protect our environment and address our climate challenges, to take on poverty and inequality… to invest in the infrastructure…  New state homes to house the homeless. 100% renewable electricity generation. Free trades training and interest free loans for small businesses to expand and to thrive. Our plan is already in action and already working. But after this result, we have the mandate to accelerate our response and our recovery and tomorrow we start.”

In a media conference the next day, she spoke further about her plan: “We want to make sure that we’re working on things like flexi wage, small business loan schemes, those things that really aid our economic recovery quickly. There is a list of Covid priorities that I want to make sure we fulfil before the end of the year. But there will be other areas where I do want to strongly signal the extra work that we want to continue on as a government. None of it will be new, though, because we laid the foundations for these next three years in the previous three years.”

Jacinda Ardern clearly wants to position Labour as the natural party of government for all New Zealanders, so will likely attempt to embrace every sector group of influence including the rural and small business sectors.

Managing the expectations of Labour’s left-wing supporters, who are already calling for sweeping changes to progress their socialist ideas, with be a key challenge for Jacinda Ardern.

The unions have a major influence within the Labour Party and their demands for stronger industrial relations controls will have to be balanced against the need to maintain the business confidence necessary to drive the recovery.

By moving to the centre Labour risks opening up their left flank for the Greens to build a stronger and more extremist base at Labour’s expense. The re-emergence of the Maori Party will also become a competing force as they push a radical separatist agenda that will further divide our team of 5 million.

National meanwhile, paid a heavy price for their disarray. 

As Frank Newman explains, “National lost votes on all fronts. The leakage to ACT and the New Conservatives is likely to be due to failings within the party itself. The leadership flip-flops, the poor handling of the ‘errors’ in its economic plan, the lateness in delivering policies of substance, and a lacklustre campaign that seemed to be modelled on their previous campaigns.”

The party was especially out-gunned on the campaign trail, as political commentator Richard Harman outlines: “On the road with Ardern, they had a much more experienced and substantial team. They had two press secretaries with the Prime Minister; National had one. Labour had a professional video crew for social media; National had a staffer with an I-phone. Labour had its former party president and Minister, Ruth Dyson, as its advance person carefully setting up events that Ardern was going to and checking them out to avoid pitfalls. National got into trouble when its leader, Judith Collins, was sprung on a Ponsonby Road walkabout chatting with planted National Party workers pretending to be casual passers-by; there was little evidence of any advance work on that campaign stop.”

National’s leadership challenges and botch-ups reduced campaign funding and turned off voters. Judith Collins described the cost to the Party when an email criticising her announcement of a review into Auckland Council was leaked to the media: “that little leak… cost us five points”.

National’s big loss is a wake-up call – the Party knows it has to rebuild from the ground up if it is to have any hope of governing again.

Of the many forces working against National, some were self-inflicted, while others, like the pandemic were out of their control. But all the way through, serious concerns were raised about media bias against them.

Until now such concerns were largely anecdotal. But the launch of a new public good website MediaBias, which presents an analysis of the political leanings of New Zealand’s media, quantifies the problem by ranking major news outlets on articles published between Oct 1 2019 and Oct 20 2020: “Whilst the results are preliminary, as far as we are aware, it is the largest analysis of political bias in the New Zealand media to date.”

The results are fascinating – all mainstream media are found to have left-wing political leanings. The least biased was the NZ Herald, followed by Stuff, Newstalk ZB, Newsroom, Radio NZ, TVNZ, with Newshub the most left-wing. These results appear to back up the view that the media exacerbated the challenges that National faced through unfair reporting in the lead up to election day.

Jacinda Ardern has promised to govern for all New Zealanders. Whether she can do that and retain the voters that migrated from National – in the face of strident demands from her left-wing party base – will determine whether she can win the 2023 election.

Judith Collins, as Leader of ‘Her Majesty’s Loyal Opposition’, plays a crucial role in New Zealand’s Parliamentary democracy, with the prime responsibility of holding the government to account. How well Judith and National can perform that duty, and whether they can rebuild strongly enough to attract back their former voters, will determine their election chances in 2023.

Meanwhile, Labour has been given an historic mandate to govern alone for the next three years. They have committed to rebuilding the economy through economic growth. That means creating the environment in which private enterprise and wealth creation can flourish for the benefit of consumers, employees, employers, and society as a whole. How well they can achieve that goal will determine whether they deserve to govern in three years’ time. 

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*Looking ahead to the 2023 election, do you believe Labour will be able to retain the votes it gained from National?


*Poll comments are posted below.


*All NZCPR poll results can be seen in the Archive.


Click to view x 120


Not a show ! DICK
never RICHard
Miss Ardern and her followers will be adroit enough to to continue with another crisis – a renewed effort capitalising on any “crisis” – probably Global Warming/Climate Change – relying yet again on false “science” used by her propaganda machine to frighten the public yet again into believing she and her party are the only ones capable of “saving” the nation. She will continue to hold the high-ground unless another political party has enough gumption to overcome the left leaning media and the Labour/Green propaganda machine to educate the populace with the whole truth and loosen the ties to the UN that are now socialist/marxist driven. Michael
In my view, as a loyal right wing voter, National will have to do a huge amount better in public relations, promotions, advertising etc. National failed miserably in every way. They simply did not deserve to win. No, I did not tick Labour in any of the boxes. John
Because they bought those votes, also people voted for them to keep the Greens out, and it looks like they’re going to be in. This Government is corrupt as far as I’m concerned, buying votes within 1 week of an election, is not on. Heather
Wait for the coming depression to see how the public will quickly turn on Labour.This was the election to lose Bill
Time will tell how popular Labour remains. Eventually COVID 19 will pass, then perhaps it will be revealed that the Empress has no clothes. Bill
The next election Labour will have no excuses if they take the greens into government it just shows how weak they are David
They will perform badly Jim
I will never forget the Labour government’s support for the decriminalisation of abortion and support for euthanasia ken
So the commentators here & elsewhere say that the election was well won by spin, selfies, social media, no substance on the economic recovery for the mess created by the communist airhead at the top of the ticket who infantilised a nation. I say stupid for NZers who voted for socialism on the instruction of the bought, biased leftwing media and hope Americans are not that stupid and vote for a sea of red over there next week. Oh, apparently now you vote for the party you don’t want to maintain the fake MMP system even though we have obtained FPP. Not only National needs fundamental change but the whole country does as it rushes headlong into more race-based laws, tribalism, flawed electoral system, no free speech, biased, left-wing media. I will retreat now and watch more Fox News and wait for a leader here who has moral courage and backbone. Monica
Because they will form an alliance with the greens. Peter
The socialist labour government will be lucky to last the distance to three years. They have won an election with an economy in a state of collapse being held together with a billion dollars of money being printed every week. The election was won on the basis of a political structured crisis built on fear. It is sad that so little of society has faith and the ability to rationalise. The pain being felt in society is not reflected by media coverage as most of the media are receiving income from an ongoing Covid-19 crisis vigorously reported daily. Covid-19 will be with us for an indefinite future due to the power it gives Socialist-Labour in government. A significant challenge will be the Parliament’s ability to govern supply because the reserve bank is independent. Thus giving the government virtually has unlimited supply. A challenge to supply will no doubt be made during this term of government as the debt through money printing will get larger, progressively, until the implications of a prolonged depression will be so profound even the most self-interested politician will shake at the knees. Is it Utopia here we come.? Or A Nation that cannot see the Wood for the Trees will likely Lose the Wood and the Trees! Frederick
Surely the voting public will realise eventually that it’s all catch phrases and no delivery. Mark
I think the majority of kiwi voters choose their candidate based on whether they like the candidate- not on substantial policy reasons. Sadly therefore, NZ will likely slip further and further toward socialism while thousands of well–intentioned voters are asleep at the wheel Scott
The only way that Labour can maintain their election numbers would to keep the Covid-19 scam running for another 3 years…..! John
Kiwibuild. The majority have demonstrably declared their 2 digit IQs and short memories. Just keep smiling and make false promises and blame the lot of the underclass on ‘the rich’. Destroy economy achieved and rapid decline now accelerates. Zoran
Yay! Wiremu
Basically, Labour will continue it’s Left wing course. Doug
As the economy tanks, house prices keep going up faster than wages, votes will move away from Labour Lachlan
Judith knows what needs to be done to sort out the party. Drain the swamp, Return to founding principles. Sam
Surely not! People will have seen through her deliberately obscure and devious statements by the next election! Hope so anyway. TOBY
They can’t blame their non-delivery of all their 2017 election promises on NZ First. There are very few solid performers in their leadership lineup, very little experience of rolling out vital infrastructure, combined with their reluctance to “hear” what business is telling them. Their first year in govt was spent in endless, futile committees that achieved nothing. So why would the next three years be different? If Kelvin Davis ends up as the deputy PM it sends a signal that it will be a new tail (Maori caucus) wagging the dog. However, National needs to have a good look at itself and make some huge changes in the way it deals with its constituents. Kerry
Three years in politics is a long time and Jacinda will suffer the experiences of past leaders as eager ambitious members put their names forward for “success”! Joe
The Labour Party’s performance and ability to deliver their election promises has been a dismal failure in the past. The same will happen again. Pierre
Socialism only works until you run out of CCP ,Soros or Schwabs money… to paraphrase a real leader. Ron
It’s almost impossible to win the next election after such a heavy defeat. Plus New Zealanders now seem to have a nine year itch. Lee
I hope we don’t have to wait until 2023 to get rid of them. The result just proves to me how dumbed down New Zealander’s have become when they cannot analyse the government’s performance over the last 3 years. Murray
Easily if Collins and Brownlee are still in the trough. Bruce
Probably not. Looking at what has happened during the last 70 or 80 years they will get four terms in parliament, then everyone be completely fedup with them and the “other mob”will have four terms in power until everyone gets fedup with them and history will repeat itself. Ian
I say no and I hope it is not wishful thinking. National needs to regroup, stay loyal within themselves, choose a new leader if necessary and come out strong in three years time, with believable, doable policies for NZ as a nation not divided by race, colour or anything else. Cecilie
It’s becoming apparent that it’s high time to scrap MMP – return to FIRST PAST THE POST. MMP makes it too easy for unelected candidates to step into parliament when a party member resigns. How deeply in debt is our nation with covid19 funding and ongoing claims paid to maori who are now saying on live TV – “1.4 billion is not enough” for one single claim recently paid to to them”. Labour does not deny any claim – some of which are dishonest -claiming back land previously sold to the Crown with the intention of gaining today’s prices. The treaty is constantly changing to suit and cover a new claim. A reliable source states the treaty wording has been changed ELEVEN TIMES to suit new claims. The original wording from the Crown emphasised maori were gifted with dual citizenship – not sovereignty. Leave our country’s name alone – we are NEW ZEALAND – and stop trying to change the names of our cities and towns. CM
It takes only one dishonest plan set in motion before this election to bring the collapse of this government. CM
Nats will reinvent for the better. david
National needs to get its act together. (pun intended), They are totally disconnected from the people. Judith has to go and new inspiration breathed into the party. That is how Labour is trouncing them Great to see David making big headway. Take a look at him National!! Peter
It doesn’t matter what you ‘believe’. Barry
Most National voters as well as disillusioned with their own parties performance were determined to keep the Greens out.The Greens have done enormous damage to New Zealands economy. they think that they can collect the money and distribute it out to their way of living. Frank
3 Years , time to reflect and amend short term thinking. Back to Basics and financial stability. Money makes the world move on. Rick
with her communist background she is only going to lead us down to a 3rd world country Eric
Covid19 and the Greens policy key items scared National voters coupled with the internal shambles that occurred with in National Starting With the Jamie lee Ross Saga etc. Barry
The answer to this poll is entirely in National’s hands Rex
Labour will have to box very clever if they want to win the next election. No government has ever increased their lead after such a land slide victory. They will lose votes by pandering to the wishes of the Greens and the Maori party. Both have radical policies that do not sit well with main stream New Zealanders. At a debrief of the National party all the faults will be revealed and an action plan will be devised to recapture the Treasury benches. A very interesting three years to come. Dennis
Pre Covid they had achieved very little if anything Alan
If commentators such as Katexpected Hawes by believe National voters voted Labour so enabling them to government alone without the need for the commies, thatthen those voters fell for the commies ploy to trumpet their wealth-tax and thus scare National voters into doing just that.Cindy said “no wealth tax while she is PM”. I believe she won’t see the term out, for either ambitious or personal reasons. And don’t forget, Labour campaigned loudly on a Capital Gains Tax in 2017, Winston blocked it. Sharen
Not unless they ‘manufacture’ another ‘Covid-19’ type of emergency Gareth
Labour’s ability to retain National votes in 2023 is a double-edged sword. On one hand, a large numbers Kiwi voters have been proven to be rather stupid, shallow, and gullible. Their level of fear around COVID, and the number of people who think they will die if they catch it, is ridiculous. Never mind those people who can’t see how Ardern is little more than a figurehead who is steered away from any controversy and only wheeled out to give hugs and make meaningless statements. Thus, Labour has a good chance of retaining these voters. On the other hand, Labour will spend three more years failing to deliver anything useful. They will spend huge amounts of money in the process and will make life much harder for businesses, landlords, and anyone trying to get ahead. These failings will likely drive voters back to National. Then again, the media is so biased in favour of Labour that it can be expected that they will spin every Labour failure into a success story. Gary
National have not learned the need for a coalition partner but will continue to push the failed two ticks campaign believing that if Labour can govern alone then the centre right can do the same. Delusional! craig
once a commie always a commie and cindy the red certainly wont change her colours and just by talking to the greenies has put her on the back foot let alone her promises last election were unachievable with the no hopers she had in her party. Richard
The more maorified Ms Ardern continues to go down the separist track will not endear her to National voters. Carol
The political centre of gravity has shifted steadily leftward over the last four decades. National will never gain political traction being being ‘Labour-Lite” and scrapping over the ‘centre’ ground. National needs to present a clear, defined alternative in terms of political principles and philosophy, or Labour WILL become the natural party of government. Dave Seymour needs to revert to promoting the core ACT principal of colourblind government and individual equality in citizenship, rather than pandering to his new-found whanau in an attempt to stay onside with them, too. Reuben
….. only if they keep the ” green party ” muted and powerless otherwise they will be political junk yard history. Christopher
People will soon be disillusioned when they see no progress and a further depressed economy with everything based on race grounds ie priority health,education,housing awarded on basis of race not need Chris
Ardern encouraged voters to vote early. If people had waited they may not have given their vote to the left especially when Shane Jones threw $100million to the Maori a few days before the election. Ardern hasn’t a clue economically and will quickly run up even more debt as she tries to keep the bludgers happy with even more welfare. God save NZ. Carolyn
Mainly due to the muppets who gave their Party Vote to Labour to keep the Greens out of Parliament or a chance of a Coalition with Labour, may, by 2023 a huge regret because they didn’t really think through the eventual consequences, giving Labour a huge landslide majority……I hope they got it right, although with Comrade Ardern in charge, I suspect these muppets actions will heavily backfire on them….. bah ba ba baaaaa…….!!!!! Bruza
Hardly likely – they are bound to do things that will mean that many people will realize that there is little talent in the party and much dogma that is very nasty. Roger
This was a back lash Colin
Not based on their past performance. Geoff
Adulation and Kindness David
National should recover but I’d have to say it is NOT clear cut, it is a 50/50 chance. Peter
I hope not Mike
No panic pandemic Jeff
Since it is unlikely that Labour will become anything other than a “Labour Party” it is unlikely they will be able to retain the centre and that will mean centrist parties will likely make a come back. Pieter
Because Labour will have ruined the economy by then and shown its socialist fangs even further peter
But it will depend on how National rebuild. Not only their MP/Political wing but also those from the Chairman/President down. National has a lot of problems at the Branch level, here the voters have been disfranchised by the governance here. Carl
Labour achieved next to nothing in the last three years – I believe we will see more of the same this time around. After Jacinda won the election, not Labour! Jacqui
Labour will retain some, not all, of the National votes. I expect it to take 6 years for National to recover from its defeat. Deryk
We should be back to normality by then with no “red herrings” David
they will go to act and the new conservative party Ian
Twelve months from this election a significant percentage of NZ voters will be licking their economic and personal financial wounds. tHis election was the most manipulated and corrupt election that NZ has ever experienced. Adern used Taxpayer funds to electioneer every day at 1 pm under the guise of Covid 19; and chose lockdown periods of maximum advantage to Labour, and to the most disadvantage to the ACT and National parties. Don’t expect our MSM to research and report in any depth on this election. They have achieved their goal – perceived Socialist lead Nirvana Bob
Just how many migrate back to National will be determined by how ell Labour manages NZ Inc over the next 24 months. The other major factor will be how ell National rebuilds and defines what it stands for and who it represents in the next 24 months. Labour performs as expected and does not deliver and if National builds from the ground up and returns to its root support and policies then these voters could easily return to place National in charge of the Treasury benches come November 2023.easily Chris
Unfortunately yes, because there is no sign yet of a fair and balanced media, and Labour will continue with smooth spin and beguiling platitudes to conceal its rabid marxist underbelly. If they admit the Greens into co-governance, then that may disturb the Nats who supported them… Janet
They will if National continues with their Climate Change bullshit, trying to appease the climate change believers and all the other PC crap they came up with. National needs to get back to their core values instead of trying to appeal to the centre left. Dave
All the national voters that voted labour, will be saying, “my god what did I do, I voted wrong”. National NEED a stronger PR company, and a stronger team. People are also sick of the squabbling between the 2 main parties. When I first started to vote, voters had to decide who had the best policies to help them….not which party was best at ripping the oppositions throat out. ROD
focus on the corona virus got labour elected,along with the lack of a free press. norman
No it will probably lose support. But too many voters in New Zealand are blinded by what they see & read in mainstream media. I believe this election result is a sad reflection on the intelligence of a majority of voters. It doesn’t take too much scratching beneath the surface to discover the lies that Ardern & her fellow government colleages have spun. Rex
Too many variables to makes a meaningful prediction three years ahead. Graeme
Once bitten Iain
Quite probably. Or sufficient of it to continue to make a difference. A lot depends on how well Labour consolidate their win, and make it clear the benefits are universal (if that turns out to be the case). Keeping free of the pressure of the Greens will make a lot of difference to the next time round, too. Mabel
That’s a very good question. National were an absolute shambles and if they don’t get themselves sorted Labour will walk home again. Peter Goodfellow has got to go first off. Too much has happened in National under his watch. What was he thinking. National have been in tatters for the last few years and nothing was addressed. Yes Labour will get back in if nothing changes. Don’t worry about Cindy, worry about National and what they are not doing. Chris
If we have another election and the CCP party hasn’t become the dictator they will because most NZ are idiots that dont think of the good of the country and most young new voters are socialist trained in their thinking from school. Barry
no way they will have stuffed up well by then John
Very unlikely Gareth
They always stuff it up and run up a huge debt. Lyn
I consider that the election was a 1 off with a weak approach by National leading to their defeat. Brian
A 3rd term – unlikely but who knows? The economy which stems from all world & govt activities will determine the 2023 result. It depends on how well National can articulate this. Douglas
Bankrupt socialist countries don’t have real elections Roger
At least I hope it doesn’t! As Covid dies down and other issues come to the fore their support will slowly leak away. Michael
It was a hollow win based on National party flaws, media bias. Labour had a platform utilising Covid 19 announcements to promote JA Lawrie
I hope not. They have failed on most promises. It will be difficult to keep the fear factor running for 3 years even with the help of media bias Bryan
It will depend on the complete makeover of National. That will take 6 years from the chair down. . Greg
I don’t think they are good enough to govern the country they could not before promised the most delivered the least Peter
Unlikely but possible if National continues to eat itself as it it currently doing. jd
Jacinda, the face of Labour enjoyed a year of unprecedented media saturation, which she milked for all it was worth. Being elected because everyone knows your face, is a far cry from being elected for sound workable policies. Without the Covert-19 backed media time, they will find the bar has been set far too high for them. George
The labour uplift was anti green not anti national John
They failed on all their promises last time. They will do the same again. Their parliamentarians were elected on sex and race and not on the best person . Denis
A lot depends on whether Jacinda’s $50,000,000 taxpayer funded media propaganda machine remains loyal to her John
No, because they can’t fly the “conservative” flag forever, because they are communists! Seems it takes NZ a looooong time to wake up!!!! Neil
As long as National get their act together. martin
No I think when the analysis of covid comes out we will see how the PM used it to her advantage. Up until the covid hit , the govt was pathetic. Without doubt it has saved her. National reserved the kick in the backside it got by putting Simon in charge when that was when Collins should have got the job. I can see this country going down a very slippery path. Look back over the years and its National who build up the wealth and Labour who spend it. All we need is a top notch CEO and a good board to run this little country,not self serving politicians. Peter
No but it won’t matter. By National supporters voting Labour to keep out the Greens they have shifted the centre left. Should they leave at the next election we will have a new further left coalition of Labour ?Green. National supporters voting Labour have ensured a transitional to socialism. The growth strategy in the next years will be either Gvt owned or controlled. The simplest way to eliminate capitalism is to make it Gvt controlled and therefore dependent , not atax it out of existence. Rights are simply legislated away and with them financial rewards redirected. Mervyn
NO!!! If New Zealanders vote “Jacinister” in for a third time in 2023 then they deserve to suffer in misery and servitude. In the mean time we and other Western nations should start thinking about withdrawing from the U.N. – I’m serious! Don
I don’t believe Cindy’s victory speech promises. Her govt achieved NOTHING promised for NZ during their first term. All BS and jellybeans. But plenty of celebrity for Cindy. Something weird happened in this election with the party vote, and something even weirder happened with the swing from a distant 3rd to first for Swarbrick in the Auckland Central win. Sharen
Labour is well known for making promises it can’t or doesn’t to keep. That won’t change. Judith is a more than worthy opponent for Ardern.. She is stronger of character. She just needs to get all of the National MPs thinking her way and get rid of pro left people. She needs to be given a chance by media. Elsie
Mistaken vote even in 2020 Catherine
No, too many personal agendas within the Labour Party, unions, so called treaty claims and redress demands. Plus the green effect. Owen
Depending on their performance with an Industry lead recovery. Would actually like to have a “Maybe” button for this & ALL future Polls. Neville
But they won’t get my vote. I voted National because I looked past the covid 19 debarked and looked at the failure to deliver and perform as a viable government. If they get another earthquake or deep recession that the National party dealt with I hate to think how much more in debt the country will be. As a retired person I fear for the future generations and how the racial bigotry will exacerbate. We are on a downward spiral with Maori racial policies that are being pushed and I hope there will be a backlash that will follow. Andrew
Too early to really predict. Depends on the economic recovery & how much influence the Greens have on labour policies. Evelyn
While many previous national supporters will come back to national there will not be a big enough swing to change this government Tom
It will largely depend on whether what was said on the campaign trail and the performance over the next 3 years match up I think. Ted
But only if they realise which century we are in. Maybe think about Dr Reti as leader Mike
Only another crisis will get labour voted in again. Everything is an academic exercise for labour but the world in the long run performs on getting shit done. Roger
No – Covid 19 won the election – not Labour. Unless there is an astronomical improvement in their ability to deliver on their promises, the next three years will be a repeat of the last three, on steroids. Once National extricates itself from the present chaotic state that it is in, and becomes a viable political entity as it has done in the past, then we should see a change for the better. Scott and Oriole
It is doubtful that Labour will be able to keep everyone happy and National voters will return to the party, although it needs to reshape itself. Act will probably keep a lot of its supporters, and potentially pick up some New Zealand First voters. Gavin
The economy will ultimately be their downfall. They have no concept of cost/benefit, no concept of real world business issues….. Lionel
Socialists / Marxists never resist the urge to attack the wealth contributing sector with envy driven tax’s. p.s.Has anyone come up with a reason why NZ taxpayers support the four left wing government controlled TV stations? Rex
As David Seymour said, they couldn’t run a bath, 4 ticks Blue from our house, this election and the next. Gerald
Labour’s ability to get anything positive achieved has yet to be proven. It is up to National to get it’s act together and if Labour runs true to form and fails or more likely destroys, then they will not get the same support next time round. National has to do a lot better and I believe under the stewardship of Judith Collins it will do just that. She is an amazing lady and I am keen to watch her get the party back on track. Dianna
No, they will be found out, found wanting by then. There will be much conflict within this Government over the next three years. Grahame
The expectations from New Zealanders will diminish over the three years as they find that, one by one, the promises that were made on election day have not happened. or been shelved, and as they discover that the Labour government does not have the experienced or skilled people needed to ensure policies are advised or executed effectively and efficiently. Mary
The gloss will wear off as the incompetence of labour becomes apparent and hopefully national will get their act together. Geoff
Socialism has always failed John
All they’ve got is Cindy and a whole bunch of bumper-sticker slogans. They’re as shallow as a car-park puddle and have achieved nothing in he last three years except getting re-elected thanks largely to COVID 19. John
But, only if Jacindarama fades away. Dave
Because it will fall short on the economy, jobs, work done. Graeme
Hell no – this happened just to keep the crazy Greens out. Glenda
If National can take a good look inside at all levels, acknowledge it and get back to their basic philosophy then they will be respected by the voters who have firm beliefs that people want self responsibility not Government control Helen
Unless National can get themselves together as a strong party. Helen
A party of incompetent pretenders who resort back to script adding taxes, making employing people undesirable all the while paying the unemployable more for doing nothing. They will achieve no economic growth just as before the virus saved them. Tony
National will put Luxon in the leaders role at the right time and he will soundly wipe the floor with this commie cow from Labour. Mike
National will have to get their act together to beat Labour. If they had sided with ACT on the gun control fiasco they would not have lost over 300,000 votes from gun owners. Ian
They have a strong mandate but doubt they have the ability to be creative. chris
The stardust will disappear with COVID, which is far from a “pandemic”. The size of the Labour caucus will take its toll Philip
Their financial approach will find them out with the loading of cost onto the productive sector, and penchant for stupid social spending to those who don’t contribute to our productivity. Terry
I am sure they still won’t deliver much in the next 3 years Lya
They won’t be able to deliver anything meaningful Richard
Sorry NZ but you voted for an empty vessel. We will all regret your decision by end of term. Dennis
Covid aside, what did they achieve in the last 3 years? They are all sizzle and little sausage Ross
The left will cut through any centrist intent. Allan
In 3 years time when Labour’s grandiose promises are unfulfilled they will be unceremoniously consigned to the parliamentary garbage heap of history. Robert
Everything in its favour this time Ala
Labour got Nationals votes due to the general public realising Labour would win by a huge majority thereby allowing Labour to govern alone without the loony Greens. Every person I have spoken to about the election has this opinion. We do not want the Greens telling us what we should do and they could in fact wreck our economy. Alan
No they have too many Mps. She wont be able to swan about the country doig photo shoots because Rome will start burning some of the new mps are not going to sit at the back and be told what to do!!! Les
Snowball’s chance in hell. But by then the country will be flecked for the next 50 years. Mark
It won’t, but it will be too little too late by then. National say all the right things, and to their credit don’t add to the bloat of government regulation created by Labour – but neither do they have the balls to ever get rid of any of the damaging policies Labour’s put in. National will win 2023, but we will all still be stuck with all the extra regulation, red tape, taxes and government bloat Labour throws our way in the meantime. Pavel
simply a lot of national supporters held their nose when ticking labour. Sam
Labour has peaked and will now enter a downhill slide. Many truly believed that a party vote for Labour would keep the Greens out. Labour cannot cut the umbilicus as it will definitely need the Greens next election, hence the party votes are like turkeys voting for Xmas. We are in for a bumpy ride as information withheld prior to the election sees the light of day. Lee
Few people seemed to be able to look beyond the Covid 19 virus giving Jacinda full credit for “saving “us! Well ,time will tell Sonia
National have no decent ideas. All they do is criticize, after the event – which is easy for everyone. Kevin
Certainly Labour would have to shine very brightly to expect the current vote count in three years’ time. some of the glow at present around “Saint Jacinda” will inevitably evaporate from here on and, who knows, Judith Collins or some other National (or ACT) spokesman may shine so brightly in opposition that they gain the required mana. They would need to do it with positive policies rather than carping criticism, and even the most brilliant performance is hard to register against that of the party in government. Rob
No but not sure if they will revert back to National, maybe Act will be the true opposition party? Tee
Hopefully by then people will take their blindfolds off sheryl
Labour lack the capacity to create capital and build jobs. Their record of failures in the past 3 years is the evidence Peter
Not a hope. Graham
Yes if it means keeping the greens under control. National will have to get their act together fast or they will shed more votes to Act. Tim
Why don’t you have another option Like don’t know or maybe? I think this is a waste of time Question aspecially as its far to Early to say. Catherine
All talk. No practical things done. Too much to expect change now, only continuing incompetence Anon
They do not deliver what they need to deliver while abusing democratic process as they fumble about. I do not have confidence an Ardern Lead government is a good guardian of our democracy. . Peter
I do not think so. This election was stolen . Labour’s performance under show pony’s ‘ leadership’ was– in mild terms– abysmal. The damage done to our country by this reckless ‘ leadership’ will come home to roost on a big scale and the price for this all of us will be forced to pay regardless. The Govt. is borrowing 158 million dollars per hour at present to run this show . In three years time so many people will be disillusioned by all this that a change of Govt. will be inevitable. I predict the Greens will be gone. Act will have solidly established them selfes and the Nats will have moved back onto their traditional values under Collins . We will see a strengthening of the New Conservatives past 5 % and their entry into parliament. There will be a good chance of a 3 party coalition between Nats , Act and NC Party in order to beat Labour . Wait and see!! In the meantime we will get shafted by these commies like there is no tomorrow. Michael
if the Nats move back centre they will grab votes back wayne
3 years will see the end of Covid. Economic down-turn will start to bite. may see our ‘winter of discontent.Labour has proved unable to deliver so far. Judith
Judith was good but they toned her down. Judith was surrounded by poor quality colleagues Ross
Not a hope in hell! It’ll be more of the same – lots of “conversations” and no delivery. Alan
They will tie themselves to the greens thereby alienating the voters who wanted the Greens away from any power. Murray
She will NOT get the advertising she has had out of the Corona virus. Peter
God help us if they do! Brian
They did,nt in the last 3 years so I,m 100% sure they wont this time.The greens wont just accept being left out nor will the radical maori party.Expect to see fireworks for the next 3 years. Cindy
Unless National changes its image during the next three years Terry
National should have played ‘safe’ with Covid instead of trying to Open UP to all and sundry – even I was concerned. Diane
They are an incompetent rabble who have few people that actually worked for a living. The Kung flu virus was a Godsend to scare the population into staying with them. Of course, National didn’t help itself and needs to do some serious work over the next 3 years, but by that time I predict total disillusionment with Labour. Charles
They’re the do nothing, achieve nothing Party. Wait for the tax increases Trevor
This election win was a fluke for Labour. Co-vid19 and National’s disarray gave Labour a second term. Carl
Depends on both Labour and National’s relative performances Warren
I don’t think she will need to retain all of the votes she gained from National, as quite a few of the older ones, who were deceived by her covid propaganda will have died. The indoctrinated children who have come through our ‘education’? system will more than take their place, so we could be stuck with an extreme Socialist government who will slowly but surely turn Aotearoa into the Zimbabwe of the South Pacific. Aotearoa will be the official name for New Zealand, by 2022, to appease the Maori Party.. Sad truth of the matter is, if all of the fed-up with National [Labour Lyte] voters who did not vote ACT, had voted New Conservative, there would have been enough right of centre presence in parliament to, if not run the country, at least keep the brakes on, the FAR LEFT. The expression; “the nation gets the government it deserves” certainly rings true on this occasion.. A.G.R.
unlike national, they have NZ interests at heart. I think from the leaks and scandals its pretty obvious that National have the national party as their priority. Jo
In saying that National will have to get back to their middle ground. They certainly lost their way this time. Liz
Historically opposition doesn’t win an election, the party in power loses it. We have to wait and see what sort of a mess the Labour government makes of economic recovery. It is on that they will be judged as people will begin to see they’ve been hoodwinked by the covid scam. Jenny
If Cindy can stay as No 1 I think she can rule the roost for this period. Warren
They won’t be able to help themselves. They will be as left as any govt in this country’s history. Ted
Hopefully not Shirley
If Act performs this term it will gain some of those who could have returned to National. john
Nz is f***ed Greg
Not because Labour will be worth it, but because the population has largely become idol worshippers of one personality. Also, the younger ones coming through are trained in thought control at school, and the institutions lean to the Left. And several other reasons. Alison
Not a dogs show Graeme
over promise under perform is the actuality for labour Collin
Ardern won’t be able to help herself, she is weak, undecisive, and will let the greens do her dirty work for her over the tax issue, jealousy is the basis of all their policies, if you can call them that, a wish list as long as your arm. All sounds wonderful to the ignorant, but who the heck is going to pay for it all, you’ve got it, the poor suffering tax payers, BUT, if they are stupid enough to think this feather brain can save them yet again, they are in for a HUGE disappointment, more fool them. As the workforce once again shifts to Aussie, who are they going to blame this time, it can’t be National, there’s a lot of suckers around. Merryl
The question is somewhat premature. It would be most unwise of Labour to invite the Greens into government and unwise of the Greens to accept. Both would lose support. More broadly, Judith Collins needs to go not because she might not be effective, but because she is trying to be as “nice” as Ardern, always a battle that will be lost. National needs a strong charismatic male to accentuate and exploit the contrast between the two parties. If National cannot regroup and convince the electorate that they are worthy of being supported, ACT may well rob them of many of those supporters that they do have and become the second major party. Peter
Still can’t believe NZ has do many stupid people and a corrupt mass media egging them on Richard
Assuming Covid is under control, and unless Labour can achieve a lot more of what it promises than it did in the last 3 years, then it will certainly not retain all those voters. Plus assuming National can pull themselves together in that time. Andrew
All talk – no go! And noone to blame now! Hopefully the Opposition will hold them to account for every little bad move! Gail
Remember, even with a 49% win, 51% – the majority- of people don’t want Cindy. Alan
I believe Labour had an unprecidented helping hand from the media this time. We don’t need to look very hard on the internet to see what doesn’t get reported. Labour now have to deal with a major economic crisis, housing crisis, inequality that is a lot worse than 3 years ago, very complex global geopolitics. phil
I suspect strongly that the weaknesses of Labour exposed in the first term will come to haunt them, especially now as they can blame no other party, and there will be a massive case of voter remorse. Ardern as an individual and the Labour Party as a whole are lazy, and without policy. They are in the same position policy wise as they were in 2017. That is why the 2020 election was all about Ardern and lacked the substance of policy. However Ardern’s personality will not put food on the table. National made some strategic errors in 2018 that set the scene for 2020 – if they can overcome these errors then they will capture the voters flooding back. Brenton
Their inexperience will finally come to the fore. Chris
The country will be in complete disarray. Furry
I’d like to think NO, but in all honesty, I just don’t know what the people in this country were thinking with this election. Seriously, I cannot think of one policy the Coalition of Fools actually succeeded at. The word NONE comes to mind. Yet they get voted in with such a landslide majority. The words that comes to mind are ‘Stockholm Syndrome’. You reap what you sow NZ! Maddi
I hope Labour are out on their ear and a strong National Party is ready to take the reins by then.   Simon
I think Jacinda Ardern will struggle with the promises she has made to those National voters, and as long as Judith Collins does a good job, they will return back. But it also depends on balanced reporting over the next three years, and that is something we cannot rely on at this stage.   Brenda
Labour’s left will force through their demands and centre-right voters will be scared off. We are in for a tough three years.  Daniel
Roll on 2023 when we can get rid of the socialists for good. Michael
Someone should analyse the amount of funding spent on each of the electorates that swung to Labour to see if it was excessive. So much money was being dished out to buy votes that it was not easy to keep track of it all. It would be a fascinating piece of research that would no doubt show that Labour bought the election!  James